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An Autopsy: Assessing Nepal’s chances of a Super Sixes birth and ODI status

Sakush K.C.
Author
Nepal Cricket Team
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Despite losing the first three matches of the ongoing ICC World Cup Qualifiers 2018, mathematically Nepal can still secure a spot in the Super Sixes stage. Also, the door for an ODI status is still ajar.

Nepal qualifying for the Super Sixes stage

Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Zimbabwe 3 3 0 0 0 6 +1.380 839/150.0 632/150.0
Scotland 3 3 0 0 0 6 +1.160 501/112.2 495/150.0
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2
Hong Kong 3 1 2 0 0 2 -1.246 490/146.0 550/119.3
Nepal 3 0 3 0 0 0 -1.546 607/150.0 728/130.1

Mathematically, Nepal can still pip Afghanistan’s Net Run Rate by inflicting a heavy defeat on Hong Kong.

  • Nepal Bowling First

On paper, Nepal can still overcome Afghanistan’s +0.038. But in reality it is another matter altogether.

Assumed Score: Hong Kong 50/10, Nepal 56/4 in 2.1 overs
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.039 663/152.1 778/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

Should Nepal bowl out Hong Kong for 50, they can reach Super Sixes stage should they score 56 and chase the total in 2.1 overs, scoring at 25.85 runs per over.

Assumed Score: Hong Kong 100/10, Nepal 106/6 in 3.5 overs
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.039 713/153.5 828/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

 

Assumed Score: Hong Kong 150/10, Nepal 156/6 in 5.2 overs
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.039 763/155.2 878/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

 

Assumed Score: Hong Kong 200/10, Nepal 206/7 in 6.4 overs
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.039 813/156.4 928/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

Similarly, should Nepal bowl out Hong Kong for 100, 150 or 200, they should chase the total by scoring at 27.65, 29.25 and 30.9 runs per over. Realistically not possible for a team that has scored at a rate of more than 5 runs per over only once in the tournament.

  • Nepal Batting First

Theoretically, Nepal can still qualify for the Super Sixes if they drub Hong Kong by a large margin.

Assumed Score: Nepal 250/7 in 50 overs; Hong Kong 37/10
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.039 857/200 765/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

 

Assumed Score: Nepal 275/7 in 50 overs; Hong Kong 59/10
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.042 882/200 787/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

 

Assumed Score: Nepal 300/8 in 50 overs; Hong Kong 82/10
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.039 907/200 810/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

 

Assumed Score: Nepal 325/8 in 50 overs; Hong Kong 104/10
Team Matches Win Loss Tie No Result Points Net Run Rate For Against
Nepal 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.042 932/200 832/180.1
Afghanistan 4 1 3 0 0 2 +0.038 839/184.4 871/193.2

Nepal can qualify for the Super Sixes if –

  • They score 250 and restrict Hong Kong for 37
  • They score 275 and restrict Hong Kong for 59
  • They score 300 and restrict Hong Kong for 82
  • They score 325 and restrict Hong Kong for 104

These number don’t look unrealistic like the 25 runs or more per over Nepal need should they chase a small total, but can they score big and restrict Hong Kong for a small total?

Hong Kong Team Totals in the tournament:

  • Hong Kong 91 (38.2/50 overs), Scotland 92/6 (23.3/50 overs). Scotland won by 4 wickets (with 159 balls remaining)
  • Hong Kong 241/8(50 overs), Afghanistan 195/9 (46 overs, target 226). Hong Kong won by 30 runs (D/L method)
  • Zimbabwe 263/9(50 overs), Hong Kong 174 (46.5/50 overs). Zimbabwe won by 89 runs

Hong Kong were bowled out for 91 in their first match of the tourney, but then have posted a score that was adequate to defeat Afghanistan. They also scored 174 against group toppers Zimbabwe. Anshuman Rath scored a duck against Scotland but has rebounded with a 65 & 85.

Ground

The match will take place at Bulawayo Athletic Club. The following matches have been held at the ground in the ongoing qualifiers.

1st Innings 2nd Innings
Afghanistan 255 (49.4) Scotland 256/3 (47.2)
Hong Kong 91 (38.2/50) Scotland 92/6 (23.3/50)
Hong Kong 241/8 (50) Afghanistan 195/9 (46 ov, target 226)
Nepal 194 (49.5) Afghanistan 195/4 (38.4/50 ov)

The average 1st innings score at the ground in this tournament is 195. Whereas the highest being Afghanistan’s 255, which was chased by Scotland with 16 balls remaining. It will be tough ask for Nepal to score 300 plus should they bat first. Hong Kong have played twice in the ground losing one and a famous win over Afghanistan in the other.

Although Nepal is mathematically still with a shout for the Super Sixes, the door is not wide enough for the team to get through. Poor performance in the first three matches has left Nepal with mission impossible. Further, should Nepal bat first and go all out attack, they may be 44/5 after 10 overs like they were against Scotland. And should Hong Kong defeat Nepal tomorrow, they will enter the Super Sixes at expense of Afghanistan and at the same time take the last vacant ODI status.

So Nepal should now focus on defeating Hong Kong tomorrow with a view of overtaking them for the 4th spot in the group and meet the lowest ranked team from the other group in the 7th place play offs.

 


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