With three games remaining in the Nepal Premier League, the playoff race is heating up. Three teams have already been eliminated, while only one team has secured its spot in the playoffs. Let’s break down the playoff scenarios:
Janakpur Bolts
The Bolts are currently at the top of the table despite today’s loss. However, they could drop below Sudur Paschim Royals and Karnali Yaks (if the Yaks win by at least 12 runs) if both teams win their remaining matches.
Sudur Paschim Royals
The Royals have two games left and are in a strong position to secure a top finish. With their superior net run rate, they will guarantee a top-two spot by winning at least one of their remaining games. Only in a worst-case scenario—losing both games by huge margins—would they fail to qualify for the playoffs.
Karnali Yaks
The Yaks need to win their final game by at least 12 runs (assuming they score 160 runs) to move above the Janakpur Bolts in the standings and finish top two. However, their playoff hopes could be jeopardized if Kathmandu Gurkhas win their last game and the Yaks’ net run rate drops below the Gurkhas’. For instance, if the Gurkhas bat first, score 170, and win by 30 runs, the Yaks would need to avoid losing by 39 runs or more to stay ahead and qualify for the playoffs.
Chitwan Rhinos
The Rhinos are almost assured of a playoff spot. Only in an extreme scenario could the Gurkhas surpass them in the standings. For this to happen, the Gurkhas would need to win by an improbable margin of 142 runs if they post 200 runs batting first.
Kathmandu Gurkhas
To climb above Chitwan in the standings, the Gurkhas would need to win by a colossal margin of 142 runs (if they post 200 runs on the board)—a difficult feat looking at the tournament’s score. If they bat first and score 170, they would need to win by 70 runs to overtake the Yaks in net run rate. Their most realistic path to the playoffs is to defeat Biratnagar Kings by a significant margin and rely on Karnali Yaks losing by a similar margin, ensuring the Yaks’ net run rate drops below theirs.
For example, if the Gurkhas bat first, score 170, and win by 30 runs, they will need the Yaks to lose their game by 39 runs for the Gurkhas to qualify for the playoffs (assuming Yaks are also chasing 170).
